Although a little later than planned, the property pundits have been working their magic to help inform us of what might happen in 2020 and in some cases, over the next five years.
Summary: Not much expected to happen in 2020!
So, the forecasts for 2020 aren’t too exciting, basically they suggest we’ll see more of the same as we’ve seen in the latter part of 2019 for most areas.
Most of the pundits agree property price growth will range from falls of -2% for London predicted by Savills to the best forecast growth by PwC in 2020 of just over +4% year on year in Wales and the West Midlands.
Versus last year’s forecasts, 2020 price growth is less optimistic than previously predicted and I think that’s correct, especially considering the problems we’ve had on the high street and large companies such as Thomas Cook going bust. Areas like Aberdeen are still expected to under perform due to oil prices being suppressed and it’s likely that areas such as Swindon could follow suit with the planned closure of Honda in 2021.
I do think though that although these forecasts are likely to be accurate over the 12 months, they will rise and fall over the year. For example, if there is more certainty from Parliament and a Brexit perspective, I expect there will be 3-4 months of quite a lot of activity, bearing in mind current pent up demand has been building over the last 12 months as people have held off buying and selling.
So as long as we don’t see any real economic horrors to our system, I think we’ll see some stronger than predicted growth during the first part of the year, which will then fall back in the second half of the year as pent up demand and supply abates.
Of course these might all be revised as soon as the election has been settled and we have (some) certainty over Brexit!
Open Property Group
Society of Licensed Conveyancers