Property price report from Kate Faulkner for March 2022

publication date: Mar 16, 2022
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author/source: Kate Faulkner, Property Expert and Author of Which? Property Books

Property price report from Kate Faulkner for March 2022

 

The UK’s most comprehensive property price report

This report is to help give everyone – industry and consumers – a quick five minute guide to what’s happening in the property market, according to the property indices, along with property expert Kate Faulkner’s comments.

Property price and market indices summary 

Rightmove 
Biggest ever monthly price jump sets new record high as movers fear missing out

“Price of property coming to market rises by 2.3% this month (+£7,785) to a record of £348,804, the biggest monthly jump in pounds recorded by Rightmove in more than twenty years. Prices are now 9.5% higher than a year ago, the highest annual rate of growth since September 2014.”

RICS
Pick-up in new buyer enquiries supporting near-term sales expectations

“New buyer demand rises over the month.”

Nationwide 
House price growth accelerated in February, with average price up £29,000 over the last year
“Annual house price growth accelerated to 12.6% in February, up from 11.2% in January and the strongest pace since June last year. Prices rose by 1.7% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal effects, the seventh consecutive monthly increase.”

Halifax 
House prices rise at fastest annual pace since 2007 to reach new record high

“Monthly house price growth rose to +0.5% following a slower start to the year. Annual rate of growth at +10.8% is the strongest level since June 2007 (+11.9%).”

e.surv 
South East of England leads the way after nearly 14 years

“England and Wales monthly and annual growth edging down at 6.9%.”

Zoopla 
UK house price inflation at +7.8%

Average UK house prices rose by 0.9% in the three months to January, taking the rate of annual growth to 7.8%, down from 8% in December. Price growth gained momentum during most of 2021, after one of the busiest years the market had ever experienced. But with the lowest level of quarterly house price growth since August 2020, there are signs now that price growth is starting to ease, although the path will not be linear.”

 

Download Kate Faulkner's March 2022 price report here

Summary of house price indices this month

We should view some of the property prices this month with a bit of caution as there are suggestions from the likes of Zoopla that the market is slowing, while most indices are still suggesting price rises are on the increase. That’s not bad news, it has to happen, and we should remember that many areas across the UK haven’t done that great during the pandemic, including parts of London and even as far as Aberdeen. We have so much better data available from individual property price changes going back as far as 2000, through to property type and by postcode, it’s really this information that everyone should be focused on, particularly when working with individual buyers and sellers.

  High Low How much Latest price Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Annual Annual    
  2007/08 2009 did prices vs 2007/08       Change Average    
      fall? high         (05 - 22)    
Rightmove £241,474 £213,570 13.1% 44.4% £340,167 £341,019 £348,804 9.5% 3.7% Asking prices E & W
Nationwide £184,131 £147,746 24.6% 41.3% £254,822 £255,556 £260,230 12.6% 3.2% Mortgaged only UK
Halifax £199,766 £157,767 26.6% 39.2% £276,091 £276,759 £278,123 10.8% 3.2% Mortgaged only , seasonally adjusted UK
e.surv £231,829 £197,145 17.6% 56.0% £349,234 £361,767 n/a 6.9% 4.0% Actual prices, includes cash sales E & W
Zoopla £178,128 £153,449 16.1% 37.0% £242,000 £244,100 n/a 7.8% n/a Sold prices, mortgage valuations and agreed sales UK
UK HPI £190,032 £154,452 23.0% 44.6% £274,712 n/a n/a 10.8% 3.6% Sold prices, includes cash sales and new builds UK

 

 

How does house price growth differ by country?

Each of the countries are showing double digit growth versus last year/quarter, but what’s far more interesting is the long term trends this hides. Prices in London are up 51% since the previous height before the credit crunch, while Northern Ireland is still showing average prices down by 29% - it’s an incredibly stark contrast of what has happened to prices over time and a reminder that ‘snapshot’ price changes shouldn’t be relied on to really understand the market.

These high price rise reports means much of the online chatter is now about the likelihood of prices crashing this year. The reality is though that the forecasts suggest growth of 3.5-5% for this year, and that should still be correct bearing in mind that although average prices are showing big increases year on year, the long term trend since 2005 has shown rises of 2-3.7% which mean prices have risen in line with inflation over time.

Basically, despite the last couple of years of high-ish house price growth, prices are still performing at their long term norm, in line with inflation.

Source: UK HPI

 

Chart showing the data from the table above:

Source: UK HPI

Download Kate Faulkner's March 2022 price report here

 

How does house price growth differ by region in England?

Another factor that many of the ‘doomsday’ theorists are ignoring and why I think they may be proved wrong (or it could be me!) are that property prices in previous bubbles have gone up everywhere – and all prices have risen.

Looking at today’s data though, that isn’t the case to date. House prices have risen in many places, but flat prices are just that, flat as a panic for many buyers and owners.

Although data from last year, this is shown by Zoopla’s analysis of house versus flat price inflation:-




The more 2022 continues, the more I think property prices are going to be extremely dependent on the individual 
supply and demand for that property at the time it comes up for sale. This is tough for the media to get across to buyers/sellers, but it’s essential for agents in particular to do so. Using the average results from the stats we have seen to date rather than an agent’s local knowledge is essential for buyers to listen to. I’m also not a great fan of the automatic valuations often used to drive leads as when the data is like this, it could end up under-pricing some and overpricing others – and we know how badly that ends for everyone!

For me, pricing a property for market is an essential skill only a good agent has, while a surveyor takes this knowledge, looks further at the data and considers the property’s value, bearing in mind the condition and other factors that they would take into account.

Source: UK HPI

(See charts with different property price growth by region in the Appendix)

 

 

RICS
“Respondents across all parts of the UK continue to report a further uplift in prices, with the North West and South East of England now seeing especially sharp rates of growth.”

Halifax 
“Seven UK areas are now seeing double-digit annual house price inflation, highlighting not only the strength but the breadth of gains across the country. Wales was once again the strongest performing nation or region, with annual house price growth of 13.8%, largely unchanged since January. The South West of England also continues to record big gains. Annual house price inflation is now up to 13.4%, with by far the strongest quarterly growth (3.5%) of any region. While there will be a variety of local factors influencing the strength of these respective housing markets, it’s notable that both areas benefit from greater availability of more rural, scenic living which has proven to be so popular amongst buyers throughout the pandemic.

“Elsewhere, Northern Ireland also continues to record strong price growth, with prices up 13.1% on this time last year. House price growth remains robust in Scotland too. That said, despite the annual rate of house price growth picking up to 9.2%, remarkably Scotland now has the ‘weakest’ rate of annual growth of any area outside of London, again testament to the strength of house prices right across the UK. As indicated above London remains the weakest performing area of the UK, though the capital continued its recent upward trend with annual house price inflation now standing at 5.4%, its strongest level since the end of 2020.”

e.surv  
“Four areas have seen an increase in their annual rate of growth, while six saw a fall. The four areas with an increase in rates are, in reverse order, Yorkshire and the Humber up 0.5% to 5.3%, the South West up 1.2% to 7.2%, Greater London up 2.1% to 8.0% and the South East up 1.9% to 11.7%. The South East is now in top position in the league table, after being absent for more than a decade, with the West Midlands falling to third place – having been in top place last month. This is the first time that both Greater London and the South East have been included in the top four areas of house price growth since August 2020. Demand for properties after this date had tended to be outside of the south east corner of England, as lifestyle changes brought about by the pandemic tended to favour scenic open spaces in more rural areas or in coastal locations.”