Well, it’s that time of year when everyone gets out their crystal ball to let us know what they think will happen next year – and over the next five years.
This time last year we had huge amounts of different opinions – from -5% price falls and -17% falls in transactions through to complete Armageddon of -20% price falls and up to -30% falls in transactions
To date, the predictions for -5% price falls and selling around 1 million homes versus the 1.2 million norm look the most likely – so a big congratulations to Richard Donnell and his team at Zoopla for getting this right, so far!
We will of course have to wait until around March / April time to have the definitive figures when the Land Registry publish their data, but the reason we may well be seeing the bottom of the market now is that up until the end of September 23, all the indices will have been comparing a ‘poor’ year this year versus a great year last year.
Post September 22, we had the disastrous Liz Truss government and so any comparisons of this year will be against the backdrop of poor performance we saw from October 22, so from a statistical perspective, we are likely to ‘record’ the bottom of the market over the next few months.
However, that doesn’t mean 2024 will all be rosy. In fact, because the falls in prices haven’t been that great this year, many forecasters for 2024 are suggesting we’ll do the same number of transactions as this year, which is around 1 million, and we’ll see a few more price falls because more and more people will be coming off their low fixed rate mortgages which will dampen affordability.
It’s important to break down the economic forecasts and the property price and transaction forecasts and that’s what we’ve done below.
Forecasting property prices though is very difficult because a lot of the ups and downs depend on buyer and seller sentiment, and that can be changed – positively or negatively – within a matter of days.
Sources: Savills, NIESR, Zoopla, OBR, PwC, JLL
The forecasts for 2024 are much more buoyant than they were for 2023, so the good news is that the sooner inflation falls back towards its 2% ‘target’, the quicker base and mortgage rates will fall. This will improve confidence and affordability and boost the market.
The forecasts are below, both nationally and regionally. Basically, a great market for buyers and also, although we may see some properties fall in value, it’s a good market for sellers as when it’s a bit ‘quieter’ you get committed buyers, so if you price right, you’re likely to have a good sale.
Remember that although prices may have fallen a little, they are still up a lot pre-pandemic ie versus 2019, if you have a house. However, this might not be quite the same if you have a flat as typically, they are achieving the double-digit growth houses are benefiting from.
So, the good news is that over the next five years property prices are predicted to rise. However, if you are buying with cash, do remember that versus inflation this will mean a real fall in value as inflation is expected to be around 25% over the next five years.
If it’s your home that’s not so much of an issue, but if you are an investor, think twice about investing with cash long term versus using mortgage finance, which can substantially boost your returns.
What’s happening to your property / home, and what has happened to prices of a property you are interested in buying over the last 20 years?
Although averages can be useful as a guide, they won’t tell you the ‘real story’ about the price movements for a property you own or want to buy.
Do check out the sold property price data before you sell and invite agents in and compare them to the price of properties available to buy now – this will give you an idea of whether prices are holding or falling.
If you are investing, focus on the long-term performance of properties on an individual street. You want to invest in a property that will do better than the ‘average’ so check out how it’s performed over the last 20 years – especially whether prices have naturally grown in excess of inflation or below, as this can make or break your property investment.
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