The key thing to know when trying to gauge property price trends is how many people are buying versus selling. Prices rise when more people want to buy than sell and fall when the opposite situation occurs.
Download my full property price summary for December 2014
My comments on Demand this month
“Property sales’ figures are slightly conflicting this month, with the Land Registry and Acadata showing rises, while everyone else is reporting the number of properties sold has actually fallen and Rightmove suggesting that stock is at an all-time low. This does tie in though with the time of year and also the fact that the pent up sales and demand versus last year has now subsided, perhaps meaning 2015 will bring a more ‘normal’ market.”
Here's what the Inidices are saying about demand this month
Rightmove “Following the most active year for transaction volumes since 2007, average stock levels per estate agency branch are at historically low levels, with an average of 60 properties for sale. This is the lowest number ever recorded at this time of year, with lack of property choice having helped fuel this year’s upwards price pressure. The volume of property coming to market is also slowing down, further limiting supply, and this month sees new listings down 1% on the same period last year and 15% on last month. (Nov 14)”
NAEA “The number of house hunters registered per NAEA member branch fell, from 406 in September to 380 in October, easing the balance between the number of available homes and demand. The average number of homes sold during the month remained static on September figures, at an average of 9 sales per NAEA member branch. (Oct 14)”
RICS “Buyer enquiries and agreed sales continued to decline and at a faster pace than in the previous month. Falling activity is no longer just a London phenomenon; within England and Wales, buyer enquiries fell to varying degrees across all regions included in the survey with the exception of the North, while agreed sales fell in all regions except the South West and Yorkshire and Humberside. (Oct 14)”
Agency Express “Two of the twelve regions recorded by the Property Activity Index bucked the seasonal trend. For properties ‘Sold’ the North West recorded an increase of 7.40% followed by the South West of 1.40% when compared to October 14. This month’s largest declines were made by East Anglia falling by 14.10% in properties ‘Sold’. The North East fell by 6.40% for properties sold. In Scotland, properties ‘Sold’ fell by 18.3%. (Nov 14)”
Acadata “October saw the highest level of house sales completed in a month since November 2007. In part this was driven by a better throughput of sales that had sat in the pipeline for some time, finally coming through to completion. The biggest uplift in completions in Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013 has been witnessed outside of London – completed house sales in both the West Midlands and East Midlands have risen 22%, while in London house sale completions are up by just 3% over the same period. (Oct 14)”
Bank of England “The number of loan approvals for house purchase was 59,426 in October, compared to the average of 63,727 over the previous six months. (Oct 14)”
Severn Trent “The average number of daily transactions in November was down 6.3% year on year. It was also down 2.2% on the average number of daily transactions in October. This continues the trends shown since August of a slowing housing market. (Nov 14)”
Land Registry “In the months May 2014 to August 2014, sales volumes averaged 80,596 transactions per month. This is an increase from the same period a year earlier, when sales volumes averaged 71,463 per month. (Oct 14)”
Download my full property price summary for December 2014
With limited stock this affects supply as well as demand.
Here are my comments on supply this month
“We all know that stock is limited, making it tough to secure enough business to move onwards and upwards. The question will be, whether the great news on stamp duty will help to deliver more sellers who up until now have decided not to trade down due to stamp duty costs. Personally I’m sceptical, but like the ‘Help to Buy’ initiative, the change in stamp duty and a less volatile market in 2015 may spark some more confidence in sellers to move, which would be a great outcome.”
Here's what the various indices are saying about supply of property
Home.co.uk “Across the UK, the supply of property for sale is steadily increasing but remains historically low. The number of properties that entered the market last month was 14% higher than during October 2013. Scotland has registered an annual rise of 18% in the number of properties for sale. In Wales and the other English regions, we have observed only minor increases in the volume of sales properties coming onto the market. (Nov 14)”
NAEA “Member agents reported an average of 53 properties for sale per branch – 15 per cent higher than the monthly average for the rest of 2014 and the highest number recorded on books since October 2013. An average of 51 properties was recorded per branch in September. (Oct 14)”
RICS “There is a flat trend in new instructions, which suggests that for the time being, homeowners are not under any significant pressure to sell. (Oct 14)”
Agency Express “For new listings ‘For Sale, Central England recorded their best figure to date for November rising by 12.30% and London recorded a robust rise of 24.80% when compared to October 14. This month’s largest declines were made by East Anglia falling by 21.70% and the North East falling by 25.70% for new listings ‘For Sale’. In Scotland, new listings ‘For Sale’ fell by 10.2%. (Nov 14)”
Download my full property price summary for December 2014
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