We take an in depth look each month at what the property price reports are telling us. They tend to measure the market at different times and also in different ways – which is why some indices give average prices of under £200,000 and other’s over £200,000! It’s not the number that is so important, it’s really what the trend is – whether that’s up or down and what’s impacting the market.
What's happening at the moment?
The Nationwide reported average property price of £195,621 for July 2015, which is up around 3.5% year on year, when compared to the same time last year.
The Land Registry average price for June 2015 of £181,619, a year on year increase of 5.4%.
The LSL average property prices in July 2015 are £279,515, which is up 3.7% year on year.
How do this month's numbers compare over time?
‘Average prices’ for mortgaged properties were £162,245 (Jan 13) vs £195,621 +20% for Nationwide July 15.
Land Registry’s average sold prices (including some cash sales) started at £160,839 in January 2013 and are now at £181,619 in June, and with the exception of May 15, showing only small changes over the last six months (June 15) and only a 13% increase versus mortgaged properties at 20%.
LSL’s average property prices for all properties were £227,478 in Jan 2013 vs £279,515 (July 15) +23%.
Kate Faulkner’s Market Commentary:
“House prices are definitely on the up, but the rare good news is that they are, for once, increasing in line with people’s wages, in other words, potentially at an ‘affordable’ rate. The news and media channels are still slightly over egging the success of the property market, reporting increases in areas where they are really ‘recovering’. The interesting future issue moving forward is whether people are likely to move as much as they have in the past, or has our ‘love affair’ with property has ended? If fewer homes come onto the market, less people, according to the Rightmove research, seem likely to move due to a lack of choice - so a self-fulfilling prophecy that sales will remain low. The idea that the cost of moving is also putting people off suggests that people are perhaps preferring to ‘stay put’ rather than trade as high up the ladder as possible.”
What’s happening to property prices regionally in June 2015?
From a property price perspective, prices vary enormously from one UK region to another, so to find out what's happening in your area read Kate's latest detailed price report:-
LSL’s Scottish index suggests average house price growth is increasing twice as fast as England & Wales. Christine Campbell, regional managing director of Your Move, part of LSL Property Services, comments: -
“Scottish house prices are up by more than ten per cent on an annual basis. There is no denying that the recent tax turbulence has affected property prices in the shorter-term, as the market continues to absorb the change. May’s monthly fall of 2.1% is the largest backwards step we’ve experienced for nearly six years. However, this must be considered in the context of an exceptional leap in March, when average prices soared a record-breaking £16,000 as a result of frenetic movement at the top-end of the housing market, with 84 properties worth £1 million or more changing hands before the stamp duty switchover. But since the new regime was enforced, there’s been only one million-pound home sold in Scotland in the past two months. During May, it was the most expensive parts of Scotland that saw average property prices slip backwards, house prices in Edinburgh have dropped 5.7% since April, while East Lothian saw an 11.2% monthly drop in May. But overall, the downwards correction we’re seeing in May has not undone the progress that’s been made so far this year - in the midst of all this disruption, Scottish house prices have gone up 7.6% since January (£12,747).
“In another sign of the strength at the core of the housing recovery, May also marks a considerable breakthrough for our second city - with average house prices in Glasgow finally exceeding their 2007 housing boom high, and reaching a new peak of £146,286 in May 2015. Tenacious demand for homes has been the key driver propelling prices out of the shadow of the financial crisis, and Glasgow has seen the most property sales in Scotland in 2015 so far - accounting for 12.5% of all activity in the housing market. The average price for a flat in the city has risen from £105,000 in 2014 to £120,000 in 2015.”
Property prices in Northern Ireland are continuing to see some improvements, with a 4.1% YoY increase for Q2 15, although significantly down on the previous quarter’s growth of 9.1%. Prices are still only really ‘recovering’ from huge falls during the credit crunch and remain -42% below the height of the market in 2007/08. The Belfast market is still performing well and has increased by 4.8%, year on year.
London, the South East and the East continue as the only regions to have exceeded their previous high of 2007/8.
The South West region also continues to improve, with prices remaining -3% off their 2007/08 market high.
The East and West Midlands are slowly making progress, however, remain down vs their market height by -9% and -11% respectively.
Property prices in the North East, North West and Yorkshire and Humber have some way to go to reach the 2007/08 market high, remaining down between -17% and -21% and may not recover for 10 years or more.
Kate Faulkner’s Market Commentary:
“On a regional basis, most areas do look like they have seen a ‘recovery’ or they are on their way to one - with some looking down a lot longer road than others to see prices rise to pre-credit crunch levels. London seems to have had its main recovery phase, with parts of the South and South East experiencing similar levels of price growth, but the rest of the UK doesn’t appear to be taking part in the growth as yet, and areas such as the North East and Yorkshire and Humber are for the moment, seeing hardly any recovery at all. ”
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