Each month we take a look at what the property price reports are telling us. Some indices measure the market at different times and also in different ways to others – which is why some indices give higher averages than others! It’s not the number that is of vital importance, what we are really looking for is trends in the market.
Kate's comments on the property price report headlines
“With any luck, the ‘crazy’ growth recovery rates in property prices we have seen over the last 18 months in London and a few other parts of the country are now over. This means we may be able to see some return to a post credit crunch ‘norm’ which allows property businesses to plan ahead rather than not know what’s going to happen to the market from one month to the next.”
Actual report headlines
It's also important to recognise that average house prices can be misleading as there will be a big variation between the average prices in London and those in Dundee so I also ensure that I analyse the regional price reports.
Kate's comments on regional price differences
“The reports this month really highlight the fact that national average property prices are completely redundant in the UK. Even using a London only average is becoming pointless. With growth levels in some areas achieving 4 to 5 times more than others, local, road by road, property by property agent expertise is now one of the key reasons for consumers to use an estate agent and surveyor to make sure their property is priced correctly.”
Here's what the various indices are saying about regional variations
Rightmove “The ripple effect of buyers priced out of London combined with those cashing in and moving out of the capital means that the South East has taken London’s boom-town crown. Analysis by Rightmove and Oxford Economics forecasts the South East will be the region with the highest increase in property values in the next five years, driven by a continuation of the supply/demand imbalance in the medium term. The South East has kick-started its journey on the five-year road to the highest growth in values by overtaking London in this month’s index. The top three locations [expect to be] Southampton, Brighton and Luton. (Oct 14)”
Home.co.uk “Prices slipped in the weaker regional markets over the last month (Wales -0.4%, North East -0.1% and North West -0.1%), and this is consistent with the normal seasonal price variations. Contrary to seasonality, prices pushed up significantly in the more vigorous southern regions. Asking prices in East Anglia, where supply remains very tight, jumped 1.1% over the last month. London prices also rose by 1.1% following last month’s dip. Looking back further, we can see that only five of England’s nine regions have prices that are nominally higher than they were in October 2007, whilst home prices in Scotland and Wales remain below those levels. If we take the effects of inflation into account – RPI (excl. housing) totals approximately 28% since October 2007 – then only Greater London has shown any real price gains over this period. (Oct 14)”
Hometrack “Average house prices have grown between £61,000 and £5,000 in the 12 months to September 2014. The strongest performing cities are in southern England. In percentage terms, house price growth has ranged from 18.1% in London to 4.3% in Glasgow. London and Cambridge are registering the highest rate of annual growth at 18.1% and 17.9% respectively. Glasgow and Leicester are registering the slowest annual growth. (Oct 14)”
Land Registry “The region in England and Wales which experienced the greatest increase in its average property value over the last 12 months is London, with a movement of 18.4 per cent. The East experienced the greatest monthly rise with a movement of 1.4 per cent. Yorkshire & The Humber saw the lowest annual price growth with a movement of 1.4 per cent. Yorkshire & The Humber also saw the most significant monthly price fall of 2.2 per cent. (Sept 14)”
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