How is the supply and demand of property post Election?

publication date: Jul 14, 2015
 | 
author/source: Kate Faulkner, Property Expert and Author of Which? Property Books

How is the supply and demand of property post Election?

Kate's price summary analysis the various property indices' reports on supply and demand for property, including data from Hometrack, the NAEA and Agency Express.

Download the full report for July 2015


Kate's comments on property demand:
“May’s data is showing that people held off buying (and selling) pre-election while June’s activity made up for any low levels of activity. It appears the market today is very much being driven by those at the ‘top of the chain’ trading down with cash or those buying in at the bottom with First Time Buyers definitely back. What will be interesting over the coming months is whether the budget is going to impact adversely on buy to let investors. In the past, I have always said investors need to decide if they want to invest for income or capital growth, but much of the budgetary changes potentially impact adversely on BTL’s ability to deliver income versus other ways of investing. The budget has increased the importance for agents who want to advise their clients properly on property investment to link up with independent financial advisors and tax experts.”

What are the indices reporting on property demand?:

Home.co.uk “Typical time on the market for Greater London leaps 54% in just 12 months as higher prices slow down the market. Time on the market data for the rest of the UK shows the northern regional markets, Scotland and Wales have all increased their momentum over the last 12 months. However, the southern regions such as the South East, East of England and South West are indicating slight increases in marketing times as higher prices have lessened demand. (Jun 15)”

NAEA “An average of 383 house-hunters registered per branch in May, up from 344 in April. Findings show this May witnessed the highest year on year demand for ten years. May continued to show a positive move forward for FTBs, with an increase in the number of sales, as government incentives such as the Help to Buy ISA make it marginally easier for those getting on the ladder for the first time. (May 15)”

RICS “Buyer demand rose in each area except the South East with the headline new buyer enquiries series coming in at 17. Demand in Scotland and Northern Ireland remains on an upward trend while London and the West Midlands also saw a pick-up in enquiries over the month. (Jun 15)”

Halifax “Economic growth, higher employment, increasing real earnings growth and very low mortgage rates are all supporting housing demand with signs of a recent modest pick-up in demand. (Jun 15)”

Agency Express “11 of 12 regions continued to buck seasonal trends displaying month-on-month increases for properties ‘Sold’. London reported a rise of 24.9%, a substantial increase over figures recorded for June 2014 where the region saw an 8.3% rise. The North East recorded their best figures for properties ‘Sold’ in June since the Property Activity Index’s first records in 2007; rising by 39%. This month’s only decline in properties ‘Sold’ was recorded by Yorkshire and Humberside. Struggling to keep pace over the past three months the region recorded a fall of -1.60%, a considerable slowdown when compared to 2014’s figures of 17.8%. (Jun 15)”

Bank of England “The number of loan approvals for house purchase was 64,434 in May, compared to the average of 61,844 over the previous six months. (May 15)”

Severn Trent “The average number of daily transactions in June was down 3.1% year on year. It was however, up 1.2% on the average number of daily transactions in May. (Jun 15)”

LSL “Home sales across England and Wales soared 15% month-on-month in June, reaching a total of 73,000. It’s clear the General Election distorted the usual tide of the market, with many buyers waiting until afterwards to complete on their purchases. In the first half of 2015, sales are 13% lower than the same period last year. But June’s sharp upward spike shows the start of this calibration back to firmer territory, as confidence in the political landscape solidifies with a majority government. (Jun 15)”

Land Registry “In the months December 2014 to March 2015, sales volumes averaged 61,789 transactions per month. This is a decrease from the same period a year earlier, when sales volumes averaged 69,282 per month. (May 15)”

Download the full report for July 2015

 

Kate's comments on supply of property:
“The reality is now setting in that people who own are staying in their homes for much longer than they have before. This is denying the market the stock it needs for ‘everyone’ to move. It continues to mean that new build is the only way forward to put a roof over our growing populations’ heads in the future. The problem we have is this stock needs to be affordable and in areas like London and the South East, that means more shared ownership properties as it’s clear this government isn’t going to back social house building programmes. New planning rules that are being proposed may mean stock will come through more quickly, but agents who want to grow, need to widen their reach to working alongside new build developers and housing associations, relying on second home sales into the future may limit the ability to grow.”

Here's what the indices are saying about the supply of property:

Rightmove “Unfortunately an increase in demand has been met with a tightening in new supply, with the number of properties coming to market down 8.5% on the same period a year ago. Indeed there has been a 3.9% month-on-month fall in new listings, meaning that fewer properties have come to market after the election than before it. (Jun 15)”

Home.co.uk “Supply of property for sale remains steady across the UK; down by just 2% (May 2015 vs. May 2014). (Jun 15)”

NAEA “The average number of properties available for sale per branch decreased from 43 in April to 46 in May. Supply has almost halved in ten years, with 81 properties available to buy in May 2005. (May 15)”

RICS “Supply of new stock to the market decreased once again in June with the headline RICS New Instructions balance remaining in negative territory for the fifth consecutive month. Stocks per surveyor reached a new low of 49.5 per branch in June. Despite the lack of new supply, the RICS agreed sales balance showed a further marginal increase in transactions in June with the headline balance remaining unchanged at 5. (Jun 15)”

Halifax “Supply remains very tight with the stock of homes available for sale currently at record low levels. This shortage has been a key factor maintaining house price growth at a robust pace so far in 2015. (Jun 15)”

Agency Express “Properties coming on to the market in London again leads the way with an increase of 57.4%, however is down on 2014’s figures of 84.5%. Neighbouring region the South East were also a strong performer this month rising by 37.8%, but again were marginally down on the previous year’s figures of 39.8%. Central England produced robust figures the 37.2% increase marked their largest rise in new listings ‘For Sale’ since the beginning of the year. (Jun 15)”

 

Download the full report for July 2015

 

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