What's happening to Regional Rental Trends?

publication date: Feb 4, 2014
 | 
author/source: Kate Faulkner, Property Expert and Author of Which? Property Books

As with national property prices versus regional ones, rental trends do vary for each area and even down to postcode level, but no-where near as much as property prices. So you might have 10 different price points for a two bed flat in the area, but around three to four rental averages.

 

For example, Terry Lucking who runs Belvoir Cambridge and Peterborough knows in Cambridge, property prices vary for a two bed property from around £175,000 which would attract £950 rent per month. In contrast, property prices for two beds could go as high as £1 million, which would rent for around £2,500. So prices vary by four times, while rents vary by just over 2.5 times.

 

That’s why, in traditionally ‘expensive’ areas, renting can be quite good value for money versus buying.

 

In the regional indices chart, we include average monthly rents from LSL, Homelet and Belvoir for December 13 vs December 12, compared to the Move with Us average monthly rent for Q4 2013 vs Q4 12 and the Valuation Office Agency’s  figures for 1st October 2012 - 30th September 2013.

It’s unlikely that any indices can be directly compared, but what we can do is check whether they are all giving the same trending information – ie going up or down, so we can get a feel for what’s actually happening in the market from a variety of sources.

 

In summary, the December 2013 versus December 2012 and Q4 2013 vs Q4 2012 rental reports by region do vary, but not by much – around 5% at most. Mostly, if one index shows a fall, so do the others, although there are few exceptions which we have highlighted below.  

 

The breakdown for Scotland and Wales regions show:-

 

  • In Wales, the LSL figures suggest an insignificant decrease in rents year on year, with Belvoir, Move with Us and Homelet  indicating rent increases year on year of 0.5%, 1.2% and 5.9% respectively.

 

Talking to local agents in Wales, the Homelet rise looks like an anomaly, so the real picture is rents are static or at most, seeing some small rises.

 

The Scottish data from the Belvoir figures suggests a small rise year on year, however, this is an anomaly in the figures due to a change in the mix of advertised properties, the real picture from Scotland shared by most agents ‘on the ground’ is one of static rents through to some areas showing small falls. This trend is reflected well in the Homelet data which shows a small decrease of -1.6% year on year, while the Move with Us index indicating a slight upward movement year on year of 2.2%.

 

Overall, rents in Scotland, bar regions such as Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow, are static to falling.

 

The breakdown for regions in England shows:-

 

  • The North East rental averages can be quite erratic as property rents can range from around £300 to in excess of £2,000 a month. LSL recorded a slight increase year on year at 1.4%, Belvoir rents were static at -0.2%, Move with Us a small fall of -2.2% and Homelet a fall of -4.4%.

    So, all the reports pretty much suggest rents in the North East are static to falling.

 

  • The North West figures vary across the three indices, from very little change in year on year rents with Belvoir showing a small fall of -2.7%, Move with Us a slight fall of -0.6%,  LSL a 0.5% increase and Homelet  are completely on a ‘limb’ versus everyone else, suggesting a large rise of 8.9%.

North West rental reports are recording static to falling values towards the end of 2013.

  • In Yorkshire & The Humber, LSL recorded a small fall of -2% year on year. The figures from Homelet and Move with Us indicate fairly static rents at -0.7% and -0.5%, with Belvoir showing a slight increase of 2.2% year on year.

 

Yorkshire and Humber average rents saw fairly stable rents, on average, at the end of 2013.

 

  • For the East Midlands, Belvoir’s figures show a slight fall of -1.2%, with LSL, Move with Us and Homelet  all showing small rental increases year on year of 1.3%, 1.9% and 3.2%, respectively. It does appear versus other indices, Homelet tends to show much higher rises than all the other indices, which in the main agree on trends with each other. 

 

East Midlands’ rents remain similar to 2012 at the end of 2013.

 

  • Belvoir recorded a rise of 3.2% year on year for the West Midlands, while Move with Us and Homelet registered smaller increases of 2% and 1.3%. The LSL figures indicate small falls of -2.7% year on year.

    West Midlands rents are showing trends in rental income of +3% to -3% year on year. Talking to local agents, this is likely to be due to different rental types, the City Centre does well, while the suburbs remain stable.

 

  • In the South West, Homelet and LSL show small rises of 3.4% and 3.1%, with Move with Us showing a smaller increase of 1.2% and Belvoir indicating rents are fairly static at -0.4%.

South West rents are static to rising in line with inflation up to 3%.

 

  • The indices of Homelet, Move with Us and Belvoir all show a small rise year on year in average rents for East Anglia, at 5.1%, 4.2% and 3.1% respectively. The LSL data on the other hand, year on year, shows a fall of -4.4%.

 

Rental trends suggest a range from -4.4% to +5.1% suggesting quite a variation which seems to be due to location – Cambridge for example is doing well, so more properties in the index from this area will boost the rental rises.

 

  • Average rents for the South East region show slight rises of 4.3% from Homelet, 2.5% from LSL and 2% from Move with Us. According to Belvoir, there is no change to rents year on year.

 

Rents in the South East are static to rising in line with inflation of around 3%.

 

  • In Greater London, the rental indices of LSL and Homelet  indicate rents rising slightly at 4% and 2.1%. However, Belvoir shows a fall of -4.2% and Move with Us, a slight decrease of -0.8% year on year.

 

Greater London does seem to have some good rental average rises over previous years, but in 2013 rent rises have slowed, and in some areas, falls up to 4% are being recorded. 

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